As I reflect on the 2022-23 NBA season, I can't help but marvel at how certain narratives unfolded in ways nobody could have predicted. Having followed the league for over two decades, I've learned to expect the unexpected, but this season delivered surprises and disappointments that even veteran analysts like myself found particularly compelling. The season's biggest storylines weren't just about statistics and standings—they revealed fundamental shifts in how basketball is played and perceived at the highest level.
One of the most delightful surprises came from the Sacramento Kings, a franchise that had become synonymous with mediocrity. Their transformation into the Western Conference's third seed was nothing short of miraculous. Under Mike Brown's coaching, the Kings developed the league's most potent offense, averaging 120.7 points per game—the highest offensive rating in NBA history at 118.6. What impressed me most wasn't just their scoring prowess but how they achieved it through exceptional ball movement and player development. Domantas Sabonis evolved into an elite facilitator from the center position, while De'Aaron Fox developed a clutch gene that reminded me of vintage Damian Lillard moments. Their first playoff appearance in 16 years wasn't just a feel-good story—it represented how strategic roster construction and modern offensive schemes can transform even the most stagnant franchises.
The emergence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a legitimate MVP candidate caught many by surprise, myself included. I'd always appreciated his smooth game, but his leap to averaging 31.4 points while leading the Thunder to the play-in tournament exceeded all reasonable expectations. His combination of old-school mid-range mastery and modern rim pressure represents the evolution of the scoring guard position. Watching him dissect defenses with calculated hesitation moves and subtle changes of pace reminded me why I fell in love with basketball analytics—sometimes the numbers only tell half the story.
Now, let's talk about the disappointments, and I have to start with the Dallas Mavericks. As someone who believes in building around superstars, their collapse after acquiring Kyrie Irving was particularly baffling. The pairing of Luka Dončić and Irving should have created an unstoppable offensive force, yet they failed to even reach the play-in tournament. Their defensive rating plummeted to 116.1 after the trade, exposing fundamental roster construction issues that even Dončić's brilliance couldn't overcome. This situation reminds me of a fascinating observation from Filipino basketball analyst Paras, who noted that defensive schemes have evolved to counter pick-and-roll actions more effectively: "He made it easier for the guards to do their job kasi kapag nagbigay ng pick, nakadikit na 'yung bantay kaagad." This insight perfectly describes what happened to Dallas—their offensive sets became predictable, and defenses were already attached to their assignments, neutralizing their pick-and-roll effectiveness.
The Golden State Warriors' road struggles represented another significant disappointment. As the defending champions, their 11-30 away record defied all conventional wisdom about championship pedigree. I've always believed that great teams find ways to win regardless of venue, but the Warriors' Jekyll-and-Hyde performance highlighted concerning trends about their defensive focus and bench production. Jordan Poole's regression was particularly troubling—his efficiency dropped across the board, and his defensive lapses often undermined the second unit's effectiveness.
What fascinated me throughout the season was how the league's tactical evolution created both surprises and disappointments. The emphasis on defensive switching and closeouts has made offensive execution more challenging than ever. Teams that relied heavily on traditional pick-and-roll actions found themselves struggling against more sophisticated defensive schemes, exactly as Paras described. This explains why teams with multiple creators and unpredictable offensive patterns, like the Kings and Grizzlies, outperformed expectations, while more predictable offensive teams faltered.
The Philadelphia 76ers' playoff performance deserves special mention as both surprising and disappointing. Joel Embiid's MVP season was a masterpiece of modern big man play, yet their conference semifinals exit against Boston felt hauntingly familiar. As much as I admire Embiid's individual brilliance, his playoff efficiency dip—from 54.8% regular season shooting to 43.1% against Boston—reveals ongoing concerns about his postseason sustainability. James Harden's 45-point masterpiece in Game 1 showed flashes of his Houston form, but his inconsistency throughout the series reinforced my long-standing skepticism about his ability to deliver in crucial moments.
Looking at the broader landscape, the Minnesota Timberwolves' failure to capitalize on their Rudy Gobert trade stands out as perhaps the season's most predictable disappointment. Giving up five first-round picks for a defensive specialist who clashed with their offensive rhythm was always questionable, but seeing them struggle to even make the play-in tournament validated my initial skepticism. Their -0.7 net rating with both Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns on the floor exposed fundamental fit issues that should have been apparent from the beginning.
What struck me most about this season was how it reinforced certain basketball truths while challenging others. The importance of roster construction and tactical flexibility has never been more apparent. Teams that adapted to the league's evolving defensive schemes succeeded, while those relying on individual brilliance without systematic support faltered. The gap between regular season success and playoff performance also widened, suggesting that the game's tactical evolution is accelerating faster than many organizations can adapt.
As I look ahead to next season, the lessons from these surprises and disappointments will undoubtedly shape team-building approaches. The value of two-way versatility, the importance of multiple creators, and the need for defensive schemes that can counter modern offensive actions have all been emphasized. While statistics and analytics provide valuable insights, this season reminded me that basketball ultimately remains a human game—unpredictable, emotional, and endlessly fascinating. The biggest surprise might be that after all these years watching the NBA, I still find myself constantly learning and reevaluating what I thought I knew about this beautiful game.
