Looking back at the 2016 NBA Draft Big Board today feels like revisiting a time capsule—one filled with both undeniable gems and puzzling what-ifs. I’ve spent years analyzing draft classes, and what strikes me most about 2016 isn’t just the star power at the top, but how eerily similar some player trajectories have been, almost as if their careers were scripted long before they ever stepped onto an NBA floor. It reminds me of that intriguing dynamic you sometimes see in sports, where athletes who’ve known each other from a young age follow nearly identical paths to stardom. Not only have they known each other at a very young age, but their paths to UAAP stardom have been rather identical—and in the NBA, we saw shades of that with certain draft prospects whose careers mirrored each other in unexpected ways.
Let’s start with the obvious hits. Ben Simmons going first overall to the Philadelphia 76ers felt like a no-brainer at the time, and honestly, I still believe he was the right pick in that spot, despite how things have unfolded since. His rookie year, after sitting out the first season, was spectacular—he put up something like 16 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists per game, numbers that screamed future superstar. But here’s where it gets interesting: Brandon Ingram, picked second by the Lakers, had a slower start but eventually blossomed into an All-Star, averaging around 24 points per game in his prime. What fascinates me is how both he and Jaylen Brown, taken third by the Celtics, shared this gradual ascent—almost like they were on parallel tracks, refining their games year after year until they became franchise cornerstones. Brown, in particular, has exceeded my expectations; I recall doubting his shooting early on, but he’s silenced critics by hitting over 38% from three in recent seasons and becoming a two-way force.
Then there are the mid-lottery picks that make you scratch your head. Dragan Bender at fourth overall? I’ll admit, I was intrigued by his potential as a stretch big, but he never panned out, bouncing between teams and putting up forgettable stats—maybe 5 points and 3 rebounds per game on average. Meanwhile, guys like Domantas Sabonis, selected 11th by the Magic and traded immediately, have turned into absolute steals. Sabonis is now a multi-time All-Star, averaging a double-double with roughly 19 points and 12 rebounds, and it’s players like him who highlight how flawed pre-draft evaluations can be. I remember watching his rookie year and thinking he had a high floor, but I never predicted he’d become this dominant in the paint. On the other hand, Kris Dunn at fifth overall has had a journeyman career—decent defender, but offensively inconsistent, which is a shame because I thought he’d be a lock for at least 15 points and 6 assists a night.
Diving deeper into the draft, the real surprises emerge in the late first round and second round. Malcolm Brogdon going 36th to the Bucks was a masterstroke—he won Rookie of the Year and has been a steady contributor, averaging about 15 points and 5 assists throughout his career. But the biggest miss, in my opinion, was overlooking Pascal Siakam at 27th. I’ll be honest, I didn’t see him becoming a Finals MVP and All-Star; his early projections had him as a raw athlete, but his work ethic turned him into a 20-point-per-game scorer. It’s these kinds of stories that make draft analysis so humbling—you think you’ve got it all figured out, and then someone like Siakam shatters every expectation. Similarly, Ivica Zubac at 32nd has been a reliable starting center, grabbing over 8 rebounds a game, while higher-picked bigs like Georgios Papagiannis flamed out quickly.
Reflecting on all this, I can’t help but draw parallels to that idea of shared paths from youth—like how Ingram and Brown both grew into leaders, or how Sabonis and Brogdon defied their draft positions through sheer persistence. The 2016 class teaches us that while talent is crucial, fit and development matter just as much. Sure, we got superstars like Simmons and Brown, but the misses on Bender or Dunn show how risky it is to bet on potential over production. From my perspective, this draft was a mixed bag, but it’s one I’d grade as a B-plus overall—flawed, yet fruitful in ways we’re still appreciating today. If anything, it’s a reminder that in the NBA, the journey from prospect to star is anything but predictable, and that’s what keeps folks like me glued to the game year after year.
